The opening day of the NCAA Tournament provided excitement for the bettors as many games were decided in the final minutes. Both Boston College and George Washington covered as favorites in overtime, while Indiana hit a late shot and a few free throws for their pointspread win. Meanwhile, Xavier got a meaningless layup with one second remaining and lost by just four points as a 5-point underdog versus Gonzaga. Below is a look at six games on the daytime card for Friday that might also be close to the number. DAVIDSON vs. OHIO STATE (-10 , 140 ) 12:15 pm ET My overall power ratings favor Ohio State by 10 points on a neutral court, but they will have a slight home crowd edge as this game is being played in Dayton, OH and teams playing in their home state are a long term 93-61 (60% ATS) over the years. The Buckeyes are coming off a SU loss in Sundays final versus Iowa and favorites off a SU loss are a long term 60% ATS play when facing an opponent off a conference tournament win, but this is a tough spot for the Buckeyes as they are playing their fourth game in eight days. Davidson has eleven days of rest and #15 seeds are nearly a 60% ATS play the past eight years. Both teams rely heavily on the three-point shot and Ohio State is just 1-10 ATS in all tournament games the past three years. NORTHWESTERN STATE vs. IOWA (-7, 135) - 12:25 pm ET This is a letdown spot for Iowa as the Hawkeyes are coming off an emotion Big Ten tournament title last Sunday and now must play their fourth game in eight days and might overlook a team from the Southland Conference. Northwestern State also won their conference tournament on Sunday, but better rested and only playing their second game in eight days. Northwestern State has definite upset potential as they played the big boys tough in November and December with wins at Mississippi State and Oklahoma State and close losses at Wichita State and Hawaii. Unfortunately, the line is too low as my overall power ratings favor Iowa by 9 points on a neutral court. BUCKNELL at ARKANSAS (-5, 124 ) 12:30 pm ET My overall power ratings favor Arkansas by 5 points on a neutral court and the Razorbacks will have a slight home crowd edge as this game is being played in Dallas, TX. The key to this game will which team controls tempo as Arkansas prefers a fast-pace and Bucknell will try to force a half-court game. The Razorbacks qualify in a solid 60% ATS situation which plays on teams off a SU loss, but Bucknell is a dangerous underdog that returns all five starters from last years squad that upset Kansas as a #14 seed. NORTHERN IOWA vs. GEORGETOWN (-4, 112 ) 2:35 pm ET Both teams enter off upset losses in their conference tournaments to the eventual conference champions as Northern Iowa lost to Southern Illinois as a 2-point favorite and Georgetown lost to Syracuse as a 3 -point favorite. Georgetown is a difficult team to match-up with in the tournament and head coach John Thompson III has done an excellent job this season, but they draw a difficult opponent in Northern Iowa as the Panthers are 21-7 ATS as a pointspread underdog the past three years. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS vs. WEST VIRGINIA (-4 , 115 ) 2:45 pm ET West Virginia is a dangerous tournament team as they have an excellent coach in John Beilein and they can hit the three-pointer. This combination got West Virginia all the way to the Elite Eight last year. The Mountaineers will be in a focused mood today as they enter off back-to-back SU losses and they now qualify in a solid 60% ATS situation which plays on favorites off a loss that are facing an opponent that won their conference tournament. While Southern Illinois is in a negative situation, the matchup actually favors the Salukis as they have an excellent perimeter defense that allowed just 30.3 percent from three-point range (versus opponents that averaged 34.4 percent overall). This strong perimeter defense is important against a West Virginia squad that attempts 51 percent of their shots from long range. Southern Illinois also has the higher RPI in this game (29 vs. 38) and the Salukis were 9-4 SU versus Top-50 opponents this season, while West Virginia was just 8-8 SU in those games. ORAL ROBERTS vs. MEMPHIS (-12 , 145 ) 2:50 pm ET This is a very dangerous game for Memphis as Oral Roberts is the best 16-seed ever in the NCAA Tournament. The Golden Eagles played a tough non-conference schedule in November and December and fared well versus quality teams, beating USC by 20 points and losing by just three points versus Marquette and losing by just one and five points in two meetings versus Utah State. Oral Roberts also lost by just eight points at Oklahoma. Memphis had a tendency to win, but not cover as a big favorite this season and the Tigers might still be celebrating their Conference USA tournament victory and big revenge win over UAB last Saturday. The sharp money has taken a lot of value out of this line as it has been bet down nearly five full points from the opening line of +17 last Sunday night. STEVE MERRIL is a professional sports handicapper and a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Get his Premium plays here. |
